The Coming Implosion of the American Empire
02/23/04: (LewRockwell.com) The American Empire is
scheduled to depart from Iraq in June. The unofficial word is out
in Washington: Karl Rove has told President Bush that the body
count, however much reduced by strange definitions of what
constitutes a battlefield death, is going to cost him the
election if it continues through the summer. Dutifully, the
Commander-in-Chief has announced a June deadline for the transfer
of Iraq's sovereignty to "the Iraqis," meaning whichever remnants
of the coalition of the suppressed will still officially deal
with him on his terms.
If you want a mental image of what is taking place in the White
House today, picture Dorothy and her three companions walking
through the forest of Oz. They are chanting, over and over,
"Shi'ites and Sunnis and Kurds."
The United States government started a pre-emptory war last year.
Patriotic couch potatoes marveled at televised shock and awe:
flash, boom, smoke. "Wow! Neat! Cool!" President Bush, Sr., said
in 1991, "This shall not stand." That is what his son said about
the Baghdad skyline. But Americans are now being asked to pick up
the pieces, or at least to pay Halliburton to pick up the pieces.
Karl Rove has heard the rumblings. The departure date is now
set.
Of course, all of the troops will not depart. Reserves are being
called up to serve as car-bomb fodder. But, officially, the
United States will become an invited observer, probably sharing
authority with the United Nations. (This assumes — safely
— that no elections will be held prior to June 30;
otherwise, the United States will be asked to leave on July 1.).
That will please liberals, who will chant, "Bush should have done
it this way from the beginning." Meanwhile, conservatives will
conveniently overlook the fact that (1) the U.S. military is in
retreat mode and (2) the Administration had to beg the United
Nations Organization to come to Iraq and bail out Mr. Bush
politically. Rush Limbaugh will not remind his listeners of this
embarrassing fact. He will not sing the praises of "those
courageous and dedicated representatives of the United Nations,
the world's legitimizer of last resort." He will, instead, do his
Winston Smith imitation, for which he is deservedly famous.
Americans thoroughly enjoy seeing American troops bang heads
around the world, but only on these assumptions: (1) the victims
can't or won't fight back; (2) the military's adventures do not
visibly tap into Americans' pocketbooks; (3) our troops can pull
out at any time without visibly putting their tails between their
legs. When there are helicopter retreats from Saigon, American
voters react in a hostile fashion. Americans like war, but they
like it cheap.
The war in Iraq has been costly in every sense, yet Americans
still are paying higher prices at the gasoline pump. The price of
oil has risen. The flow of oil out of Iraq today barely trickles.
The pipelines cannot be defended by our troops. They are being
blown up, although the media rarely report this. The Iraq
adventure has now become a vast foreign aid program, and
Americans do not like foreign aid programs. The do not like to
share the wealth. They want to get their hands on the wealth
confiscated politically from their neighbors. They resent foreign
interlopers who tap into the flow of stolen goods.
When the regular troops pull out, news from Iraq will peter out,
just as Iraqi oil has. There will be stories of this or that car
bombing, this or that assassination, this or that break-off
tribe. But Iraq will become Afghanistan in the perception of most
Americans: out of sight, out of mind. If you want it packaged in
a convenient slogan, however incorrect politically, I suggest
this one: "When wogs are killing only wogs, the West loses
interest."
This will mark the reversal of the American empire. It has taken
a long time.
"WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION"
George W. Bush invoked weapons of mass destruction, just as
Lyndon Johnson invoked the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It was never
quite clear exactly what had happened in the Gulf of Tonkin, but
it is clear that there were no weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq. Johnson was never successfully exposed publicly as a liar
regarding the Gulf of Tonkin. Bush has been exposed, and will
continue to be exposed, as either completely misled or a liar,
either a nincompoop or a deceiver. He is never going to get back
his image as a reliable leader in a time of war, which is the
only positive image he ever enjoyed, brief as it was. He will be
on the defensive from now on. The phrase, "weapons of mass
destruction," will be pinned on his backside the same way "trust
me" was pinned on Carter, "read my lips: no new taxes" was pinned
on Bush's father, and "I feel your pain" was pinned on Clinton,
barely leaving enough room for "I did not have sex with that
woman."
It will become extremely difficult from now on for any American
President to invoke a looming military threat in order to justify
military intervention by the United States. Clearly, President
Bush will never be able to do this again, but I think it goes
beyond him. His enduring legacy will be the conversion of
"weapons of mass destruction" into the equivalent of Neville
Chamberlain's "peace in our time." The phrase will become a
laughingstock. Every President from now on who attempts to
justify anything comparable to the Iraq war will be greeted with
Congressional hoots of "weapons of mass destruction." Any
Congressman with an eye to being re-elected (but I repeat myself)
will remember seeing John Kerry's verbal tap-dancing around his
support of launching a war against Iraq. No Congressman wants to
be sucked into a retroactive quagmire.
Iraq is a sandy quagmire, just as the war's critics predicted it
would be. It is Vietnam without a comparable body count. It is a
continuing disaster, and as soon as the troops leave, Rush
Limbaugh will cease trying to defend the disaster. When the
troops depart, the Republican faithful will become afflicted with
what I call Rushheimer's disease: selective amnesia. Saddam
Hussein will get a trial, but media coverage will match the
coverage given to Slobodan Milosevic's trial.
The war was a bipartisan effort, but because of the President's
rhetoric, he will deservedly get blamed. The Democrats will not
push too hard, however, because voters might make the connection
between the President's unsubstantiated claims and Congress's
willingness to roll over and play dead, or whatever it was
playing when it rolled over. ("Will you still respect me in the
morning?" "Sure I will, baby.") The next time a President calls
for an invasion, Congress will be far less supine.
LOSING THE WAR
Our troops won a minor battle in March, 2003. That battle was
called a war, but it was only one battle in a very long war. This
war has been going on for about 14 centuries. The war's main
theater today is the Middle East. When it becomes apparent to
America's enemies, which are also the State of Israel's enemies,
that the United States did not win its phase of the ancient war,
they will be emboldened. Winning the battle in the Middle East
requires permanent military occupation by the victors. American
voters will not pay the price required. When it comes to wars,
American voters are great believers in hit and run. For them, a
war is a one-night stand. They prefer to get on with business.
Americans want a commercial empire, not a military empire. They
view a military empire as justified only because it promotes
business. Iraq is not promoting business.
Americans have no intention of becoming surrogate Israelis. The
State of Israel is now permanently on the defensive. When Israeli
troops fled from Lebanon — "fled" is the correct word to
describe their literally overnight departure — it was clear
who is winning the war.
This war is deeply religious. This makes it a demographic war.
Israelis are losing this war in the bedroom. It is only a matter
of time, which is why they are building the wall: a very large
prophylactic to deal with the effects of smaller prophylactics.
But the comparative birth rates inside the wall's confines tell
the story. The Arabs are winning. They know it. Only if the
government imposes a new diaspora and forces all Arabs outside
the wall can the Israelis even pretend to be winning. This would
be a policy of democracy by removal — what the Afrikaners
were unwilling to attempt. In gentile countries, this process is
called ethnic cleansing. It is very popular in areas where
Muslims and Christians seek territorial hegemony.
In Europe the same war is in progress. Muslims are winning it in
the same place: the bedroom. If the trend continues — and
there is little evidence that it won't — the result is
inevitable. Christian Europe, which is in fact secular Europe, is
going to be replaced. Tours and Lepanto will prove to have been
minor skirmishes in a very long war. I can think of only one
event that might reverse this process. No one ever mentions it in
polite company. It is officially unthinkable. Yet it is being
thought in high places. It could take place within 30 minutes
from now. It would change everything geopolitically. The Israelis
could launch a pre-emptory nuclear strike against Mecca and
Medina. The primary symbols of Islam would be reduced to
radioactive dust. If the Israelis used a cobalt-tipped bomb,
Muslims could not visit Mecca for millennia. Yet Muslims are told
to do so at least once in a lifetime.
This tactic is Israel's trump card strategically. Everyone in
power in the Middle East knows it, but no one ever mentions it
publicly. Muslims venerate Mecca and Medina and their monuments.
When veneration becomes superstition, monuments become primary
military targets for the enemy. If the Jews blast Mecca's rock
into radioactive dust, the fallout will be more than radioactive
dust. It could be the end of Islam.
Do I think this attack will ever happen? Yes. The Israelis know
they are in a fight to the death. They know they will never be
accepted by Arabs as lawful residents in the region. Over time,
they will be overcome demographically. They know it. Their
enemies know it. So, when push comes to shove, Mecca and Medina
will disappear.
The United States government is not about to play this trump
card. So, the United States is going to lose the war in the
Middle East. If you hold back in the Middle East, you are
perceived as a loser. The United States has no ace in the hole.
Voters here are impatient.
President Bush used to talk tough. Rumsfeld talked about a war
lasting for decades. But the Bush Administration will not last
for decades. It may not last another twelve months. This is why
all the tough talk has ended. The war that matters here is
politics, and Iraq has become a political liability. We see and
hear little from Rumsfeld these days. Rove appears to have put a
gag on him.
The neo-cons are finished. They said the Iraq war would be a
cakewalk. It wasn't. They said we had to establish a presence in
the Middle East. We couldn't. The Republican Party, once Bush
leaves office, will not listen to them again. They will publish
their subsidized magazines and pretend that the public is
listening, but the public has had enough. The neo-cons are
visibly losers. They got their shot at power, and they squandered
it in the streets of Baghdad. Straussians do not need to read
between the lines in order to discern this traditional message:
"Americans do not listen to losers."
Bobos in paradise are uninterested in the Middle East. Trust
me.
CONCLUSION
The contraction of the American empire will begin in June. It has
already lost considerable legitimacy in the eyes of the voters,
not because of some great alteration of their principles, but
because we are being car-bombed out of the place. The oil is not
flowing. Sand isn't worth the price.
This will be an historic event. Historians will be able to
establish a date on which to hang their narratives. Historians
will do anything to find such a dated event. December 7, 1941
marks the beginning of the empire in the textbooks, although the
Spanish-American
War was the more obvious birthplace, assuming
that the Louisiana Purchase wasn't — a major assumption.
But Pearl Harbor gets all the attention because of the unarguable
transformation of American foreign policy that it produced.
Sporadic intervention prior to Pearl Harbor became permanent
intervention after.
The troops' departure from Iraq will mark the day that Johnny
comes marching home. There will be no parades, any more than
there were when Israeli troops pulled out of Lebanon.
The implosion of the American empire is about to begin —
not just the military one but also the commercial one. An empire
that can no longer afford to keep its troops on active duty in
occupied areas is not a good credit risk.
Mark the date on your calendar: June 30, 2004.
Gary North [garynorth@garynorth.com] is the author of Mises
on Money. Visit http://www.freebooks.com.
Copyright © 2004 LewRockwell.com
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